Stierle, Michael H. (Ed.) Stock Markets: Impact of Macroeconomic Developments 3rd INFER Workshop on Financial Markets, March 2002 Reihe: INFER Studies Vol. 7 ISBN 978-3-89700-169-5 2002 Price: 19,90 € 110 pages

Abstract

"Which contribution can theoretical and applied economics give for the explanation and probably the forecasting of stock markets? Is it possible to outperform the market with a macroeconomic based asset allocation in the short, medium and/or long run? Does the impact differ between American and European stock markets as well as between markets for blue chips and tech stocks? These were the questions well known economists from research institutes and universities as well as from the financial service sector discussed at the 3rd INFER Workshop on Financial Markets entitled: “Stock Markets, Impact of Macroeconomic Developments”: Dr. Joachim Winter from the Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA) presented the effects of the ageing society and of pension reforms on capital markets. Afterwards, Dr. Thorsten Polleit, chief economist of Barclays Capital Germany, discussed the impact of monetary policy on the performance of stock markets. These presentations were followed by three quite heterogeneous approaches to the influence of macroeconomic data on different stock markets. Frank Hübner, chief international economist at Sal. Oppenheim, analysed the US stock markets, Dr. Michael Schröder, head of capital market research at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) quantitatively investigated the correlation of different financial markets with German stock indices. Stefan Bielmeier and Lihan Chen of Deutsche Bank Global Markets presented a fundamental model to forecast the German DAX. The workshop ended with the presentation of an analysis on the cyclicity and sector rotation of stock market by Klaus Schlote, strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Based on these presentations our speakers prepared papers which are included in this conference volume. Therefore, also the reader of this book will be able to discover the wide variety of possible approaches and points of view when analysing the Impact of Macroeconomic Developments on Stock Markets."

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